An Unwelcome Change

posted by Najam Haider

The recent decision by the Iraqi parliament to change the requirements for the passage of a new Constitution do not bode well for the country's political stability.

Specifically, the Shi'a dominated government altered a provision which declared that the draft constitution could be vetoed by a 2/3 "no" vote in three Iraqi provinces. The new language requires 2/3 or ALL REGISTERED voters, effectively insuring passage as low turnout is expected in most majority-Sunni provinces. To put it another way, if EVERY SINGLE vote cast in three Iraqi provinces is against the constitution and the overall turnout is 60% of registered voters, it would still not be enough to veto the constitution. For purposes of comparison, keep in mind that the last US presidential election had an overall turnout of only 55.3%. In addition to the near-mathematical impossibility of rejection under the new rules, the US has launched another major offensive in Sunni-dominated Western provinces which will only serve to depress the turnout in these regions for the October 15 vote.

The new rules threaten to alienate a Sunni population that already feels powerless in the new Iraqi political order. Most moderate Iraqi Sunnis are willing to work with the new government but moves such as this one threaten to drive them into the ranks of extremist groups like al-Qaeda who have maintained that the Constitution is simply a US-inspired political ploy.

The Washington Times quotes Saleh al-Mutlaq, a leading Sunni politician, as considering a total boycott "because we believe that participating in the voting might be a useless act." While it is true that the Shi'a suffered disproportionately under the fist of Baathism oppression over the last 25 years, it is vital for their leadership to understand the importance of a cross-sectarian and cross-cultural coalition for the future of a united Iraq.

By altering the rules so close to a vote and explicitly marginalizing the Sunni population, the Shi'a political leadership is perilously close to playing into the hands of al-Qaeda and other extremists intent on characterizing them as puppets for US military domination. If that perception takes hold in the general Iraqi Sunni population, a bloody civil war is all but inevitable.